Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb warned on Sunday that protests and marches could cost Pakistan’s economy about Rs120 billion a day, or roughly $430 million. He called it pain the country would inflict on itself, at a time when Pakistan is trying to turn stabilisation into growth and regional tensions are already raising freight and insurance costs.
The warning came as Jamaat-e-Islami began a march towards Islamabad and PTI planned a nationwide protest for September 27. A number this large deserves scrutiny.
What the estimate covers
The minister said the Economic Wing of the Planning Commission produced it, drawing on earlier disruptions and current conditions. Services carry the largest share at about Rs86bn a day, industry about Rs25bn and agriculture about Rs9bn, with a further Rs17bn hit to government revenue. The three sectors add up to Rs120bn.
This is a government projection, not an independent calculation. The minister described the research behind it as very good, but economists cannot judge that until they see the assumptions.
Testing the scale
A rough check shows why the assumptions matter. Pakistan’s nominal GDP is about $450 billion for 2026. At the exchange rate implied by the minister’s figures, about Rs279 to the dollar, that is roughly Rs126 trillion a year, or Rs345bn a day. Rs120bn would be about a third of a day’s national output.
The Rs86bn services figure would be around 40% of daily services activity. A loss that size requires something close to a nationwide standstill, yet the marches are aimed at Islamabad.
The answer also depends on what counts as lost. Some sales and work move to later days. The government has not said whether Rs120bn is a gross or a net figure. Duration matters too, along with how many roads close, how many businesses shut and whether mobile data is cut.
Who pays
Ordinary people feel disruption first. A daily wage worker who cannot reach a job site may earn nothing that day. A small trader loses a day’s sales. A factory misses a delivery, and shoppers face shortages or higher prices if supply chains stall.
IT is a smaller part of the estimate than the debate suggests. IT and telecom services exports reached $811 million in July and August. That is about $13m a day.
The minister said earlier internet disruptions cut IT exports by as much as 80%. Taken at face value, that means about $10m a day, roughly Rs2.9bn, or under 3% of the headline figure. The larger risk is reputation. Freelancers, software houses and call centres that miss deadlines give foreign clients a reason to take their work elsewhere. The government should say what period the 80% figure covers.
Both sides set the bill
The marchers have grievances. Jamaat-e-Islami wants the petroleum development levy removed, Kissan Ittehad wants relief for farmers, and PTI wants Imran Khan released from jail. Organisers decide how much disruption their marches cause. Authorities decide too.
Hundreds of containers have already been positioned around the capital. Blocked roads and suspended mobile data each add to the cost, and each is a choice.
Why repetition matters
One shutdown costs businesses a day’s work. Recurring ones damage confidence, delay investment and weaken exports, because firms cannot plan around routes that may close or networks that may fail. That damage would outlast any single march.
What should happen now
The government should publish its assumptions: the number of days, the areas covered and whether the figure is gross or net. It should commit in advance to keep mobile data, main highways and freight routes open. Organisers should agree routes and timings that leave commuter and goods traffic moving. Each step would cut the bill before the first container is moved.
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