Israel’s election is heading for deadlock. Turnout reached 77.7%, the highest since 1999 and 7.1 points above 2022, and soldiers’ turnout hit 79.9%. With 66.2% of ballot boxes counted as of Wednesday, Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc stood at 56 of 120 seats, Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc at 48 and the Arab parties at 16, with 61 needed. Since about 40% was counted, Netanyahu’s bloc has hovered between 55 and 57 and Eisenkot’s between 47 and 50. The final tally is due Friday and official results on 4 November.
Likud remains the largest party at about 27 seats, down from 32 in 2022, with Eisenkot’s Yashar at 21. The outgoing coalition held 68 seats. Netanyahu is five seats short and Eisenkot’s bloc is 13 short. Adding the Arab parties’ 16 would give Eisenkot 64, but Netanyahu, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman reject that. Eisenkot sets conditions most Arab lawmakers are unlikely to accept, including recognizing Israel as a Jewish state and Hamas as a terrorist organization. The Joint List’s Ofer Cassif argues new elections would be a gift to Netanyahu.
Rami Khouri of the American University of Beirut said that Israel, “Though divided at home, is united in its approach to Palestinians, neighboring Arab states and Iran.”
He roots Likud’s support in a Zionist tradition of “apartheid, annexation, expansion and racism” and expects weeks of coalition talks driven by the pursuit of power. Eisenkot’s military background, he says, tells us little about how he would govern. It is a sharp reading, and the record partly backs it. Netanyahu has pledged there will be no Palestinian state, and Eisenkot calls the two-state principle “a mistake.” Both back strikes on Iran, and both would keep a security zone in Lebanon.
What will the result look like
Four outcomes are possible:
- A narrow right-wing win, which needs 5 to 6 defectors and looks unlikely unless the final count moves.
- An Eisenkot minority government backed from outside by Arab parties, which works arithmetically but is politically ruled out.
- A Likud-Yashar unity government, which Eisenkot has ruled out, so it is possible only if Netanyahu steps aside.
- Deadlock. President Herzog consults the parties, and the chosen candidate has 28 days, likely extended by 14. If that fails, Israel heads to another election.
Deadlock is the likeliest path. US midterms fall on 3 November, official Israeli results on the 4th, and coalition talks would run into December. Throughout, Netanyahu stays in office.
What eases and what suffers
That timing collides with the Iran war, but Israel’s vote will not decide it. Trump’s call after 3 November will, and the Wall Street Journal says he leans toward a large strike on infrastructure and nuclear sites. Iran has vowed to hit economic and civilian targets across the region, and the Pentagon has reportedly told Congress the war has cost $47.1 billion.
A Netanyahu win, likely reliant on far-right hawks like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, points to a joint, larger campaign, and Trump urged Israelis to return him so they could “finish the job.”
An Eisenkot win keeps the goal but narrows it, since he backs strikes if necessary yet calls regime change unachievable. Axios reports Vice President Vance and other aides, disillusioned with Netanyahu, see opportunity in someone else, and Chatham House says most Gulf capitals would welcome that. On Monday, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey took diplomacy to Tehran. The real divide is pro-strike versus pro-deal.
On Gaza, the ceasefire is a year old, yet the health ministry counts 1,493 Palestinians killed since the truce as of 12 October, with the cumulative toll at 74,382. Israel holds nearly two-thirds of the Strip against the roughly half agreed. Aid trucks enter at about a third of the agreed rate, and no stabilization force has been deployed.
Netanyahu’s government makes full Hamas disarmament the precondition for withdrawal. Eisenkot would push Trump’s plan, with PA-linked technocrats and international peacekeepers, and pledges to end Hamas rule within 18 months.
The West Bank is where the two differ most. The UN counted about 1,830 settler attacks in 2025 and roughly 190 a month in early 2026. Defence Minister Israel Katz said in July that 104 new settlements had been approved since the government took office, taking the total from 127 to 231. Smotrich is projected at seven seats and pledges more expansion. Eisenkot opposes formal annexation and promises to crack down on Jewish extremist violence, but he says he believes in settlement, so expect marginal easing, not a change of direction.
Saudi normalization is no easier under either man. Chatham House’s Sanam Vakil says it stays out of reach without a credible path to Palestinian statehood, which Eisenkot rejects. A government without Smotrich and Ben-Gvir would still give Trump more room for diplomacy, and most Gulf capitals would welcome Netanyahu’s defeat.
For Pakistan, which has no ties with Israel, mediates between Washington and Tehran and is bound to Saudi security through the Makkah pact, the election matters through the strike window and the pressure on Riyadh to normalize.
The election chose no government. Khouri’s point is the one to keep: whoever wins, the policies that matter most to Palestinians, Arab neighbors and Iran are likelier to change in tone than in substance.
Read more: https://digdebate.com/middle-east-elections-iran-war-escalation/
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