A referendum can build consent for new provinces. It cannot replace the Constitution. The government must say which road it is taking.
Soon, Pakistan may be asked to answer one of the biggest questions in its history with a single word: yes or no.
This week, the idea moved from proposal to preparation. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi called a referendum the “solution” to the debate on new provinces and said new units should come only with the people’s consent. Government sources now say the preparations are complete. If the PPP and other critics do not support the constitutional amendment, the government could refer the matter to Parliament to pursue the referendum option. On Friday, the Presidency denied that provinces came up when Naqvi met President Zardari.
What the Constitution allows
The rules are specific. Under Article 48(6), the prime minister may refer a matter of national importance to a joint sitting of Parliament. If the joint sitting approves, he may then send it to a referendum as a question answerable with “Yes” or “No.” Article 48(7) lets Parliament legislate the procedure for holding it and counting the result.
A referendum, then, is a tool for asking people. It is not a tool for drawing borders. Article 239 still requires two-thirds of both houses of Parliament to amend it. A change to a province’s boundaries also needs two-thirds of that province’s assembly. PPP’s Qamar Zaman Kaira has made the same point: legislation needs PPP votes, and a referendum result would not by itself create provinces.
The case for new provinces
Pakistan now has 241 million people, and Punjab alone has more people than the other three provinces combined. A map built for a smaller country cannot serve this one.
A referendum can help. It can show whether people in Hazara, South Punjab, Karachi and other regions actually want change. It can give Parliament a public signal that politicians cannot easily ignore. PTI supports the creation of new provinces, according to government sources, though it has not said whether it will back the amendment. PTI’s Salman Akram Raja said Imran Khan supports new administrative units but has reservations about a referendum, citing the Zia and Musharraf votes.
The risks the government must answer
History: Pakistan’s best-known referendums, in 1984 and 2002, were run by military rulers to secure their own positions. The word still carries that memory. A lawful, transparent process is the only way to clear it.
The question: A yes-or-no ballot cannot carry a map. “Do you want new provinces?” tells nobody how many, where, or at what cost. Reports talk of 12 provinces, with Punjab split into four and Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan into two each. Voters deserve to see exactly what they are voting on.
Coalition trust: The PPP categorically opposes dividing Sindh, and Bilawal wants the matter brought before Parliament. Parliamentary sources say the government chose a referendum after the PPP objected to a new province in Sindh. A joint sitting can approve a referendum without the PPP’s two-thirds. But if the government uses it to corner a coalition partner, it will win a vote and lose a federation’s trust. Sindh’s concerns need an answer, not a workaround.
A better design
If a referendum is the road, it should be built carefully. Publish the proposed map, boundaries, budgets, and costs first. Form a parliamentary committee with every party. Ask the people of the affected regions, not the whole country, since Article 239 gives each province’s assembly a vote on its own territory. Let the Election Commission run it. Then take the result back to Parliament and the provincial assemblies for the two-thirds votes the Constitution demands.
Former minister Fawad Chaudhry claims the amendment could be introduced before 15 January and a referendum announced in December. He does not speak for the government. But the clock is clearly running.
The road that lasts
Pakistan needs new provinces. It also needs a process that nobody can challenge in court or on the street. A referendum can strengthen the case if the Constitution comes first. If it is used as a shortcut, it will weaken it.
Reform that wins consent lasts. Reform that wins only a vote does not.
Read More: Bilawal Calls It a Distraction. The Provinces Debate May Be the Reset He Is Asking For
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