On May 28, 2026, US and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and start a new series of nuclear talks. The proposed MOU called for an unconstrained flow of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, the US to remove its naval blockade of Iran’s ports, frozen Iranian assets valued at around $12 billion to be released, and a 30-day period for detailed discussions on the nuclear issue following the talks.
It was the closest the two sides had been to an agreement since the war began. It was also, five days later, still unsigned. Trump had not approved it. Iran’s supreme leader had not confirmed it. And Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency cited sources close to the negotiating team saying the text had “not yet been finalized or made definitive.” In the gap between announcement and approval, the war kept going.
On June 2, Gulf hostilities flared again. Iran fired missiles and drones at Kuwait, Bahrain and other regional targets. Kuwait’s airport was struck, flights suspended and diverted. Bahrain issued warning sirens and ordered residents to take shelter. US Central Command said Iranian ballistic missiles aimed at Kuwait fell short or broke apart, and that three missiles heading for Bahrain were intercepted.
US military forces also struck Qeshm Island off Iran’s coast in the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian drones attacked civilian shipping. Oil prices rose more than one percent on the news. The tentative deal and the active firefight existed simultaneously, on the same day, in the same waters.
Israel Came Close to Breaking It All
The most dangerous moment of the past week did not happen in the strait. It took place in Beirut. On June 1, Israel threatened to attack a Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Iranian state media immediately announced Tehran was suspending negotiations with the US in response. Trump had a heated exchange with Netanyahu over Israel’s plans. The Iran-US ceasefire came close to falling apart not due to a rift between Washington and Tehran but because of an Israeli military decision in another theater, one Tehran views as part of the same conflict.
Trump wrote on Truth Social after the call with Netanyahu that it was productive and that Israeli troops would not move on Beirut. Netanyahu said in his own statement that the Israeli military would keep striking southern Lebanon as planned. The two statements contradict each other. Lebanese authorities subsequently confirmed Hezbollah had agreed to a US proposal for a ceasefire with Israel, under which Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs would cease in exchange for Hezbollah refraining from attacks on Israel. The Lebanon front is not a sideshow. Every Israeli strike in Lebanon gives Iran’s hardliners a reason to block the deal that Iran’s negotiators have tentatively agreed to. The ceasefire’s survival depends on a conflict the US does not fully control.
What the Unsigned Deal Says About the Process
The tentative MOU in its current form would declare an end to the war and start a 30-day period of negotiations on the strait, Iran’s nuclear program, and the lifting of US sanctions. It does not resolve enrichment or the issue regarding Iranian missile program. Nor does it address the long-term situation of Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s negotiators have tentatively accepted a framework. Iran’s supreme leader has not signed it. The gap between those two positions is where the war continues to live.
UNICEF noted that surging transport costs and supply chain disruptions from the Hormuz closure are hindering life-saving aid for Gaza, Lebanon, Congo, Mali, Somalia, South Sudan, Nigeria and elsewhere. The humanitarian cost of every additional day without a signed agreement is not abstract. It is measured in aid that does not arrive, in fuel that doubles in price, and in populations that had nothing to do with the war absorbing its consequences regardless. The deal exists. The signatures do not. Until both arrive on the same page at the same moment, the missiles will keep flying.
