The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) frequently refers to the Strait of Hormuz as the most significant point of oil passage in the world. It is a small waterway located between the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Arabian Sea, serving as the primary outlet for petroleum in the Middle East. Recently, with tensions between Tehran and Washington escalating after the US threat to intervene, Iranian officials have turned to their most powerful geopolitical lever, the threat to close the Strait.
The threat of a blockade has re-emerged at the center of international security issues. But beneath the fiery rhetoric lies a complex web of military feasibility, historical precedent, and catastrophic economic consequences. To know whether Iran can, or would, be able to actually close the Strait, one must look behind the headlines and into the tactical and economic realities of the 21st century.
The Strategic Chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz is a vulnerable bottleneck geographically. At its narrowest point, the shipping lanes are only two miles wide in either direction, separated by a two-mile buffer zone. This small route carries about 30% of all seaborne oil in the world and an enormous amount of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) of the world.
To Iran, the Strait is not just a geographic location, but an asymmetric equalizer. With the overwhelming conventional military strength of the United States and allies, Iran sees the capability to disrupt world energy markets as its ultimate deterrent. The oil factor remains a central pillar in the regional power struggle, theoretically forcing the international community to restrain any potential aggressors against the Iranian state.
Can Iran Actually Close the Strait?
The question of capability is two-fold: tactical and sustainable. Tactically, Iran has a strong A2/AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial) capability. It has an asymmetric arsenal of thousands of smart naval mines, swarms of fast-attack craft (including the Houdong-class missile boats), coastal anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM) batteries, and a fleet of Ghadir-class midget submarines, tailored to the small, shallow, and crowded littorals of the Strait. Iran does have the potential to disrupt shipping in the short term. Planting mines would alone create a commercial traffic jam because no insurance company would cover tankers entering a mined waterway.
The issue of maintaining a closure is, however, more questionable. The US Fifth Fleet, which is stationed in neighboring Bahrain, specifically has the mandate to ensure the freedom of navigation. Any physical effort to block the Strait would most probably lead to a huge military reaction by the international community.
Historical Precedent
The Strait has never been completely closed, yet it has served as a battlefield of high stakes. The two countries were involved in the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, which was also referred to as the Tanker War. Iraq started to attack Iranian tankers and oil terminals to ruin their economy, and Iran responded by attacking neutral tankers carrying Iraqi oil or those of Iraq’s supporters.
In 1988, the US conducted Operation Praying Mantis after the USS Samuel B. Roberts hit an Iranian mine. The Naval History and Heritage Command described this as the largest surface action since World War II by the US surface forces and the first time the US Navy fired surface-to-surface missiles in combat with an enemy. US forces virtually neutralized almost half of the Iranian operational surface fleet in a single day. This history stands as a grim reminder that although Iran may threaten to harass shipping lanes, a full blockade has historically invited overwhelming military escalation that has devastated its conventional naval power.
The Economic Apocalypse
In case the Strait was to be successfully closed, even temporarily, the impact on the world would be drastic. It is estimated that world oil prices may explode radically and would most likely double or even triple overnight. This would immediately lead to a global energy crisis since about 13 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait every day. This closure would create a hard-physical shortage that cannot be countered by the existing infrastructure. Although other nations such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have constructed pipelines to bypass the Strait to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman, these pipelines do not have the capacity to offset the entire amount lost.
This would be followed by a huge shock in inflation. An oil price spike is a tax on all sectors of the world economy, an increase in the cost of transport, and an increase in the prices of food, consumer goods, and industrial materials. This kind of disturbance would easily plunge a weak world economy into a severe economic recession. Moreover, the move would lead to severe regional destabilization. Nations like Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE rely almost entirely on the Strait for their exports; they would likely view a closure as an act of war, triggering a regional conflict far beyond the scope of a US-Iran dispute.
The Internal Paradox
One key factor why Iran might be reluctant to pull the Hormuz Trigger is that it would amount to economic suicide. The Iranian economy, even with the sanctions, continues to depend on the Strait to export its own oil (mostly to China) and import its necessities. By closing the Strait, Iran would be cutting its own throat as much as it would be choking the West. Moreover, this action would drive away its remaining allies, such as China, who are the main beneficiary of the Persian Gulf oil and is vital to the economic survival of Tehran.
A Weapon of Last Resort
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the nuclear option of Iran in conventional warfare. Although military analysts think that Iran can start a closure, the geopolitical and economic expenses involved in the closure are a last resort; option when the regime believes that its very survival is threatened. With the US contemplating intervention and Iran making its countermeasures, the Strait is the most perilous tripwire in the world. The very mention of the closure sends waves through the markets; a real measure would redefine the world order.
