Far away in the Pacific Ocean, the sea is getting warmer than normal. Scientists call this El Niño. It may sound like a problem for someone else, but it is not. It can change the weather for more than a billion people in South Asia.
The warnings are getting louder. In its September update, the US Climate Prediction Center said El Niño is getting stronger, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event this fall and winter. It also gave a 75% chance that October to December will see a historic event, stronger than any El Niño since 1950.
Our region lives by the monsoon. The rains from June to September bring 75 to 90 per cent of the yearly rainfall in most parts of South Asia. That water fills our rivers, lakes and underground supplies. Farmers and cities both depend on it. El Niño usually weakens the monsoon. Pakistan’s weather office has said that El Niño suppresses the summer monsoon in the subcontinent. Regional forecasters also expected below-normal rain across much of South Asia and above-normal temperatures this season.
A weak monsoon does not always make big headlines. There is no flood to show on television. Instead, the harm comes slowly. Crops are smaller. Dams and canals hold less water. Food gets more expensive. The poor feel it first, because they spend most of their income on food. We have seen this before. During the 2015-16 El Niño drought, an estimated 330 million people were affected by food shortages. The Reserve Bank of India has estimated that farm growth falls by around 2.4% in such conditions.
Some people think El Niño is only a summer story. It is not. Forecasters expect it to keep getting stronger until October or November, and then to weaken slowly from December. Even then, it may stay strong into early 2027. That means a hotter, drier winter is possible. Wheat and other winter crops could suffer. The next summer could begin with low water stocks. Pakistan’s weather office has also warned that if a super El Niño forms, 2027 might be the warmest year on record.
There is one small hope. A pattern called the Indian Ocean Dipole can sometimes soften El Niño’s effects. Forecasters saw early signs of it in August, but its timing remains a big question. We should not plan around luck.
So what should be done? First, protect water. Governments should manage dams and canals carefully, and stop wasting water in cities and on farms. Second, protect food. Buy and store grain early, watch prices closely, and stop hoarders before they act. Farmers need clear and timely advice on what to grow and when to sow. Third, prepare for heat and power. Less rain can mean less hydropower, just when people need more electricity for cooling. Plans to protect outdoor workers from heatwaves must be ready before summer. Fourth, work together. Rivers, weather and food markets do not stop at borders. South Asian countries already share weather forecasts. They should share water and food plans too, even when politics is difficult.
We cannot stop El Niño. But we can decide how ready we are for it. The warning has been given clearly. The real question is simple: will our governments act now, or only after the shortages begin?
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